Apparent Stability? – What the UN Report Reveals About the Taliban Regime

In December 2025, the latest report of the Afghanistan Monitoring Team was published. Operating under the mandate of the United Nations Security Council, the expert group assesses the country’s political and security situation, the functioning of the Taliban administration, and the risks emanating from Afghanistan that affect regional stability. The document provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Taliban regime: it examines the leadership structure and internal dynamics, developments in governance and the security environment, the situation of women and minorities, financial and (drug) trafficking trends, as well as the activities of terrorist groups present in the country. Below is a summary of the report’s key findings.

According to the report, the Taliban leadership continues to view governing Afghanistan as a historical and religious mission. It does not seek popular legitimacy and, while it aspires to international recognition, it does not intend to align its decisions with the expectations of the international community. Preserving unity lies at the core of the system, prioritized above all other considerations. Although internal disagreements exist beneath the surface – for example regarding girls’ education – these rarely appear in external communications. Maintaining internal cohesion – and the appearance of it – remains a strategic priority. Taliban rule has consolidated, and there is no visible political challenger. A degree of internal order and stability is evident, yet women’s rights remain severely restricted, and certain ethnic minorities have faced particularly disadvantageous conditions since the takeover.

At the same time, the report highlights that central authority is not exercised uniformly across the country. In some areas, unpopular measures are quietly circumvented or ignored, while influential actors – including members of the Haqqani network – retain significant room for maneuver, provided they do not jeopardize regime unity.

The Taliban authorities consistently deny that international terrorist organizations operate from Afghan territory. However, indications suggest that, alongside Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant – Khorasan (ISIL-K), Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Al-Qaida, the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, and other armed groups are present in the country and use it, at least in part, to plan external attacks.

In particular, TTP operations against Pakistani targets have generated regional tensions. Attacks launched from Afghan territory have further strained relations between Islamabad and Kabul, and the risk of open confrontation has once again come to the fore. The closure of border crossings – a direct consequence of deteriorating relations – is estimated by the report to cost the Afghan economy approximately one million dollars per day, while the possibility of further escalation cannot be ruled out.

Economically, the system appears relatively resilient, yet its structural weaknesses persist. The leadership sees infrastructure investments and the strengthening of Afghanistan’s transit role between Central and South Asia as potential avenues forward. At the same time, the situation has been further complicated by the mass return of more than 4.5 million Afghans – primarily expelled from Pakistan and Iran – since October 2023. This has placed significant strain on public services, the economy, and social cohesion, while the decline in remittances has led to additional revenue losses. Moreover, the international community’s ability to provide support has been constrained by Taliban measures limiting women’s participation in humanitarian response efforts.

The report also notes tangible outcomes. One example is the continued enforcement of the ban on poppy cultivation, which has now been in place for nearly four years. In 2025, cultivation remained more than 95 percent below the levels recorded in 2022.

Natural disasters – including earthquakes and drought – further aggravate the situation. According to the report, Kabul’s water supply is approaching a critical threshold, posing serious medium-term stability risks.

Overall, the report depicts a consolidated yet structurally strained system. While the Taliban leadership has entrenched its rule, terrorism, economic vulnerability, social tensions, and unresolved regional frictions remain decisive factors shaping Afghanistan’s future.